A defined comparison set
16 models meet the threshold of 10 accepted launch dates; 85 groups do not.
Historical analysis · 2021–2025
Launch Cadence and Consistency: 2021–2025
Compare observed calendar-day intervals between launches of exact rocket models, with date uncertainty kept visible.
SELECTED LAUNCHES1,1442021–2025
ELIGIBLE MODELS16At least 10 accepted dates
UNCERTAIN DATES23Excluded from primary intervals
OMITTED GROUPS85Below accepted-date threshold
Median days between launches
Models with the shortest observed medians. Lower values indicate shorter intervals, not greater capacity.
Median calendar days
Source: GCAT · Unique launch identifiersDescriptive historical analysis · no causal inference
2026 is incomplete. Its 254 snapshot launches are excluded from these full-period calculations.
Reading the data
What the record shows
Uncertain dates are separated
23 selected records have uncertain dates. Primary intervals omit them; the sensitivity column shows the effect of using their nominal calendar days.
Shortest observed median
Falcon 9 has a median interval of 3.00 calendar days across 476 intervals. Its interquartile range spans 1.00 to 5.00 days. This is not a forecast of launch-slot availability.
The underlying numbers
Interval distribution and sensitivity
Sensitivity includes nominal days of uncertain dates. It is a robustness check, not a corrected estimate.
| Model | Dates | Intervals | Median d | Q25 d | Q75 d | P90 d | Excluded | Sensitivity d |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Falcon 9 | 477 | 476 | 3.00 | 1.00 | 5.00 | 8.00 | 2 | 3.00 |
| Chang Zheng 2D | 46 | 45 | 23.00 | 13.00 | 48.00 | 78.80 | 1 | 22.50 |
| Electron | 55 | 54 | 25.50 | 15.00 | 45.75 | 59.80 | 1 | 26.00 |
| Chang Zheng 3B | 40 | 39 | 27.00 | 17.00 | 67.00 | 108.00 | 0 | 27.00 |
| Soyuz-2-1B | 39 | 38 | 31.00 | 24.25 | 62.75 | 94.00 | 0 | 31.00 |
| Chang Zheng 4C | 29 | 28 | 33.00 | 20.00 | 73.25 | 134.60 | 0 | 33.00 |
| Soyuz-2-1A | 38 | 37 | 40.00 | 23.00 | 77.00 | 89.40 | 0 | 40.00 |
| Kuaizhou-1A | 20 | 19 | 41.00 | 19.50 | 130.00 | 199.00 | 0 | 41.00 |
| Chang Zheng 6A | 19 | 18 | 51.00 | 23.50 | 81.25 | 171.00 | 0 | 51.00 |
| Chang Zheng 2C | 22 | 21 | 55.00 | 34.00 | 95.00 | 141.00 | 1 | 49.00 |
| Gushenxing 1 | 21 | 20 | 57.50 | 15.75 | 101.50 | 178.70 | 0 | 57.50 |
| Lijian-1 | 11 | 10 | 75.50 | 46.50 | 208.75 | 252.00 | 0 | 75.50 |
| Chang Zheng 4B | 16 | 15 | 91.00 | 24.00 | 169.50 | 221.00 | 0 | 91.00 |
| Chang Zheng 6 | 10 | 9 | 93.00 | 47.00 | 267.00 | 311.00 | 0 | 93.00 |
| Chang Zheng 7A | 13 | 12 | 114.50 | 53.50 | 245.25 | 284.70 | 0 | 114.50 |
| Chang Zheng 2F | 11 | 10 | 179.50 | 156.00 | 185.75 | 194.30 | 2 | 141.00 |