Historical analysis · 2006–2025

Global Launch Activity Concentration: 2006–2025

Measure how launch counts are distributed across exact vehicle names, without equating activity shares with revenue shares.

Source snapshot · 29 October 2026GCAT / Jonathan McDowellScope · O + D

LATEST HHI0.26Scale: zero to one

EFFECTIVE MODELS3.83Inverse of latest HHI

TOP 3 SHARE59.57%Latest complete period

OBSERVED GROUPS56Latest complete period

Concentration of launch counts

HHI by complete period. Higher values indicate a more concentrated distribution.

HHI

Source: GCAT · Unique launch identifiersDescriptive historical analysis · no causal inference

2026 is incomplete. Its 254 snapshot launches are excluded from these full-period calculations.

Reading the data

What the record shows

Observed change in concentration

HHI moves from 0.0399 in 2006 to 0.2612 in 2025, a signed change of +0.2213.

Effective diversity

The latest period contains 56 observed labels, with an effective count of 3.83 equally sized groups.

Leading activity share

The largest 3 groups account for 59.57% of launches in 2025. This does not measure corporate ownership, revenue or competitive power.

The underlying numbers

Concentration and effective diversity

Unknown labels are retained in the total and treated as one explicit group. Empty filtered periods have no concentration estimate.

Global Launch Activity Concentration: 2006–2025 · 2006–2025
Period	Launches	Groups	HHI	Effective groups	Top 3 share
2006	66	39	0.0399	25.03	24.24%
2007	68	35	0.0433	23.12	23.53%
2008	69	35	0.0447	22.35	24.64%
2009	78	40	0.0447	22.37	26.92%
2010	74	32	0.0504	19.84	28.38%
2011	84	41	0.0411	24.33	23.81%
2012	78	36	0.0493	20.28	26.92%
2013	81	40	0.0401	24.95	22.22%
2014	92	35	0.0440	22.75	22.83%
2015	87	37	0.0435	23.01	24.14%
2016	85	43	0.0386	25.90	23.53%
2017	90	40	0.0642	15.58	30.00%
2018	114	43	0.0560	17.85	30.70%
2019	102	46	0.0404	24.77	24.51%
2020	114	42	0.0760	13.15	35.96%
2021	146	43	0.0752	13.29	37.67%
2022	186	51	0.1241	8.06	45.16%
2023	221	53	0.1828	5.47	50.68%
2024	262	54	0.2630	3.80	58.78%
2025	329	56	0.2612	3.83	59.57%

Transparent by design

Methodology & sources

Scope and identity

Grouping uses exact vehicle labels, without inferred family or ownership mergers. Filters: none. Unknown labels remain explicit. Counts include successful and failed O+D launches.

Time coverage

The source was retrieved on 29 October 2026. Only requested years before the snapshot year are used. Complete calendar periods do not guarantee that the source is error-free.

Concentration formulas

For each covered period, s_i = group launches / total launches. HHI = sum(s_i²), effective groups = 1/HHI, top-k share = sum of the largest k shares. No economic or regulatory thresholds are applied. Unknown values are retained, so concentration by dimensions with missing values requires caution.

Scope and limitations

Unique O (orbital) and D (deep-space) launches are included, including failures. N flights and events without liftoff are excluded. The source classification is retained. These results describe the snapshot; they do not establish causes or forecast future activity.

Attribution

Data from GCAT — Jonathan C. McDowell, CC BY 4.0. Compatisto aggregates and visualizes the records. · Field documentation.

Source SHA-256
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